Defendable. Inspectable. Standardized.

Decision-grade
scenario pricing for late-stage
private companies

Level-2-defendable price in secondary VC
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Methodology

The four pillars of
decision-grade pricing

Two open papers on the late-stage private secondary market - consolidation dynamics, competitive positioning, and what a winning architecture looks like.

Late-stage private-company decisions live or die on four things. These are the four pillars that any institutional-grade decision surface must satisfy. Arcanis is built around those four.

1
Traceable data
Every input links back to a primary source. No reconstructed citations.
2
Persistent company memory
One knowledge base per company, accumulating across runs.
3
Consistent methodology
Same inputs produce the same outputs, every time. Encoded, not generated.
4
Inspectable, decomposed outputs
Every assumption and weight in an open cell. Stress-test independently.
How this compares to the alternatives
Transaction tape Internal team model Arcanis
Data Real prints. Strong signal on covered names. Sourced by the analyst, not standardized across the institution. Source-traced ingestion. Every input carries a full provenance record.
Methodology Not the tape's job. It reports prices, not methodology. Built deal by deal. Consistent within a team, not across one. Encoded, deterministic. Same inputs produce the same outputs.
Output A reference price and bid-ask depth. Inspectable internally. Harder to defend in front of an LPAC. Inspectable Excel. Independently-priced scenarios with configurable weights.

Generative AI is great at speed and synthesis, and we use it where it helps. The core pricing methodology is encoded, deterministic, and citable. That is what the institutional review chain requires.

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Product

Four layers from raw company data to deal-ready outputs

Data Layer

1
  • Public filings, professional databases and primary sources, reconciled
  • Conflict resolution and entity-resolution across fragmented private-market data
  • Source-traceable and versioned — every input citable and time-stamped
  • Persistent per-company data lake, updated continuously, never re-built from scratch

Research Layer

2
  • Transparent, systematic analysis — every step inspectable and standard
  • Encoded methodology, not LLM agents — same inputs produce the same outputs
  • Complete financial-model set with full analytical coverage
  • Human-verified baselines, fully customizable orthogonal scenarios with configurable weights

Decision Layer

3
  • Scenario-based price ranges built for real deal decisions, not single-point estimates
  • Hundreds of company signals collapsed into a small set of distinct future paths
  • Expert overlays — multiple credible views on the same underlying model
  • Inspectable, configurable outputs ready for IC, LPAC, board, audit, or counterparty

Delivery

  • Investment memos — concise, IC-ready, sharable with attribution
  • Full Excel models — open the cells, change the assumptions, save your view
  • Copilot on the live company data lake — ask anything, get sourced answers
  • Delivered however you want it: API, embed, white-label Company Hub, or PDF
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What you get

Four artifacts that turn fragmented private-company data into a defendable price your IC, your LPAC, and your auditor can all sign off on
Pricing Scenarios

A range of fair-value outcomes built from orthogonal scenarios with configurable weights. Buyer and seller see the same model, weight it differently, and reach prices they can both defend.

Pricing Memo

A structured, sharable memo built for the four decisions your team actually makes: price, compare, sign off, negotiate.

Company Hub

One live page per company. Multiple memos with different views, the full Excel model, a copilot on the data lake, and live market offers when you need them. White-label it as the embedded surface inside your platform.

Full Excel Model

Every cell open. Every assumption configurable, including scenario weights. Change the Baseline, swap in your own risks and factors, regenerate the memo from your version, share it with your name on it.

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Use cases

Brokerages and marketplaces

Embed scenario pricing and a Company Hub on every late-stage company page, via API or white-label. Host the decision surface inside your platform: institutional clients close deals faster, broker desk load on routine diligence drops.

VC GPs running tenders and continuation vehicles

Anchor your tender or CV with a defendable scenario-pricing memo built around configurable weights. Inspectable by your LPAC, your fairness-opinion provider, and the SEC under the adviser-led secondaries fairness rule.

Secondary funds and active buyers

Underwrite the middle of the market profitably. Pre-built research on hundreds of late-stage names plus a copilot on the live data lake. Your team configures the weights and risks; we handle the rest of the stack.

LPs, advisors, and PCA banks

Bridge stale GP marks to true market value with an inspectable look-through. Apply your own weighting to the same scenarios your GP uses, and surface the disagreement as a structured conversation rather than a hidden one.
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About / Founder

Alex Prokofyev

I spent 20 years building and breaking systems in top telecoms. After growing a corporate business from $150M to $300M, I started investing and building funds in private equity and venture, where I kept seeing the same problem. Every fund rebuilds the same research from scratch. Every fund reaches different answers from broadly similar inputs. None of it is auditable in the way an institutional buyer needs.

So we built Arcanis. First as an internal tool for our own fund: our analysts use it every day to price real deals. Now we are opening it to the platforms competing to host the institutional decision surface in this market. Tape products, marketplaces, brokers, banks, secondary funds, and the institutions that price what they hold.

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Integration

Delivery

Embed the decision surface wherever attention already flows:

  • Branded memos
  • An embed on your platform
  • API into your stack
  • White-label Company Hub

We meet you where you work.

Embedding in your platform

Drop scenario pricing, memos, or full Company Hubs into your existing UI as branded widgets. Your users see your brand; you get the research engine.

White-label Company Hub

Run a private-branded Arcanis instance for your platform or fund. Your domain, your design system, your client access controls.

Live API feed

Push price ranges, key signals, and fresh memo updates into your listings, CRM, IC dashboards, or LP-reporting stack as soon as the data lake updates.

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Book a 20-minute working session

See how brokerages, VC GPs, secondary funds, LPs, banks, and other platform operators use Arcanis as the embedded decision surface inside their workflows. Bring a name from your pipeline; we will price it together.

What we will talk about:

Your deals, your challenges
We'll go through one or two real situations from your pipeline. What's slow, what's hard to defend, and what would change if pricing and memos were ready before the IC meeting.
20-minute working session
Bring a name from your pipeline. We'll show you how Arcanis would price it, what the memo would say, and what your team would do differently with it in hand.
Simple Next Steps
At the end you'll know exactly what an integration looks like for your stack, what it costs, and what a 30-day pilot would deliver.
We work with:
  • Brokerages and marketplaces
  • VC GPs running tender offers and CVs
  • Mid-size secondary funds
  • Wealth platforms and feeders
  • LPs, OCIOs, and PCA banks
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